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NITI Aayog proposes a regulatory framework for e-mobility. It also predicts that electric two-wheeler sales in the country will jump to 22.01 Million by 2031, as opposed to 0.23 Million in 2021. This is assuming demand incentives continue beyond 2024, and the battery cost decreases as technology improves.
“At a certain point of time in future there may be an appropriate ecosystem for enforcement of a regulation towards electric mobility or other clean transport options,” the Aayog said in its report Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India, jointly developed with TIFAC.
According to the report, technology improvements and a reduction in the cost of batteries are essential for the self-sustenance of e-mobility. This is expected to be 100% achieved by 2031, with demand incentives and technological advancements continuing beyond 2024.
According to the report, India will see a rise in sales to 22.01 million units by FY 2024 if the battery costs drop by a CAGR of 8%. This is compared to the 0.23 million units that were sold in 2021.
In the incentive-driven scene, where the demand incentive is expected to continue throughout, but with a reduction of only 2 % annual battery cost and no improvements in range or performance, the number of electric two-wheeler sales in FY 2031 will be 5.49 million, with a market penetration rate of 21.86%.
It said that in the challenging diffusion scenario, where most conditions are considered unfavorable most of the market penetration is only 5.82% in FY 2024. This is followed by a decrease due to withdrawals of demand incentive, and finally to 3.1% in FY 2030.
This would result in sales of 0.98million units in 2024 and 0.78 million units for the financial year 2031. Niti Aayog believes that India must shift to electric mobility due to the high level of petroleum imports and its negative impact on the trade balance.