India’s journey toward decarbonizing the transport sector and achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 is a critical part of its broader climate goals. However, ensuring a sustainable transition requires careful consideration of economic, environmental, and resource-based trade-offs. A recent study by the Bengaluru-based Center for Study of Science, Technology, and Policy (CSTEP) sheds light on these challenges, focusing on biofuel use and electrification in the transport sector.
The study highlights that maintaining a 10% ethanol blending target (E10) is a practical and sustainable approach. E10 avoids the trade-offs between food security and fuel production, as it relies on existing sugarcane cultivation without additional land or water requirements. Furthermore, current vehicles and infrastructure are already E10-compliant, making it a cost-effective solution. The surplus ethanol produced could also be redirected for jet fuel production, offering further opportunities for decarbonization.
India is also working on increasing ethanol blending to 20% (E20). However, the study warns of challenges in sustaining this target without increasing imports, which would undermine the goals of energy security and self-reliance. Meeting E20 domestically would require a significant expansion in sugarcane cultivation, estimated at 3.5 million hectares of additional land, and an annual water demand increase of 60 billion cubic meters by 2050. While maize offers an alternative with a lower water footprint, its lower yield limits its viability. A balanced approach using both sugarcane and maize could reduce some challenges but would still necessitate a substantial increase in cultivated land unless crop yields improve significantly.
The study also underscores the potential of second-generation (2G) ethanol and other advanced technologies. These approaches utilize crop residues and waste biomass, offering a sustainable ethanol supply. However, the biomass supply chain and technological breakthroughs remain significant hurdles.
Electrification is another key strategy for decarbonizing transport. While essential for achieving net-zero emissions, it raises concerns about India’s dependency on critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. By 2050, the demand for these minerals for electric vehicles (EVs) could account for a substantial portion of global requirements. For example, India’s demand for lithium alone could reach 70% of the projected global demand in 2070, highlighting potential supply chain vulnerabilities.
The study utilizes tools like the Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI) model and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multipliers to assess the natural resource and macroeconomic implications of these decarbonization strategies. It concludes that a balanced approach combining moderate ethanol blending, electrification, and advanced biofuel technologies is essential for creating a sustainable, low-carbon transport sector.
India’s transition to clean technologies in transportation offers immense potential but requires coordinated efforts to balance sustainability, energy security, and resource management. The findings of this study provide valuable policy directions for achieving these goals.
