A new report by energy think tank Ember reveals that powering India’s entire electric vehicle (EV) fleet projected for 2032 would require just 3% of the wind and solar capacity targeted under the country’s National Electricity Plan (NEP-14). Titled “From Fossil to Flexible: Advancing India’s Road Transport Electrification”, the report offers a data-rich analysis of the synergy between EV adoption and renewable energy integration, emphasizing the opportunity for India to decarbonize its transport sector more effectively.
The study estimates that around 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar energy would suffice to meet the electricity demand from EVs in 2032—compared to the 486 GW targeted in NEP-14. However, this optimistic scenario hinges on the strategic alignment of EV charging with periods of high renewable energy generation, particularly during solar hours.
EV Boom Meets Renewable Push
India has witnessed an elevenfold increase in EV sales between FY2020 and FY2025, with two- and three-wheelers dominating the market. Supported by national schemes like FAME-I, FAME-II, and PM E-DRIVE, and complementary state policies, India is aiming to electrify 30% of private cars, 70% of commercial vehicles, and 80% of two- and three-wheelers by 2030.
While this surge supports the country’s climate commitments—including net-zero by 2070—the report stresses that these gains risk being diluted if EVs are powered by a fossil-heavy electricity grid. In 2024, renewables made up just 10.8% of India’s electricity mix, with overall clean energy (including hydro) accounting for 22.3%. This is projected to rise to ~50% by 2032 if NEP-14 targets are met, significantly reducing the grid’s emission factor from 727 gCO₂/kWh to 430 gCO₂/kWh.
Time-of-Day Tariffs and Infrastructure Crucial
To unlock the full decarbonisation potential, the report advocates for time-of-day (ToD) tariffs that incentivise daytime EV charging when solar power is abundant. States like Assam, Gujarat, Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and Rajasthan have already implemented such tariffs, offering lower rates during solar hours and surcharges during peak hours.
Yet, the challenge remains that most EVs in India are charged at night at private residences, when fossil fuels dominate electricity supply. The report underscores the need to rapidly expand public charging infrastructure, especially at workplaces and commercial hubs, to facilitate daytime charging.
Beyond the Grid: Green Tariffs and Rooftop Solar
The report also evaluates alternative clean electricity procurement routes, including green tariffs, rooftop solar, and open access. While green tariffs allow DISCOM-certified renewable energy supply, they currently exclude home users due to eligibility restrictions (minimum 100 kW connected load). Premium costs also limit wider adoption.
Meanwhile, rooftop solar and open access options face implementation challenges like high capital costs and complex regulatory landscapes. Nonetheless, the report highlights their long-term potential for decentralised clean charging.
Call to Action: Smarter Data, Smarter Policies
Ember recommends robust data collection on EV charging behavior, especially residential charging, to enable better planning and operationalization of tariffs. It also calls for smart charging adoption, solar-plus-storage incentives, and updated state EV policies with a strong emphasis on charging infrastructure.
The report concludes that if implemented effectively, India’s EV sector can transition from being just an electricity consumer to a strategic grid asset—one that enhances renewable energy integration and drives sustainable mobility.
