India’s vehicle ownership is set to more than double by 2050, reaching nearly 500 million from 226 million in 2023, according to a new district-level study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). The report projects two-wheelers to continue dominating the landscape, comprising nearly 70%—over 350 million—of the total vehicle stock by mid-century.
The first-of-its-kind study, based on CEEW’s Transportation Fuel Forecasting Model (TFFM), delivers granular insights into India’s future mobility trends, fuel demand, and total cost of vehicle ownership (TCO) across states and districts. It highlights that private car ownership is projected to almost triple, reaching 90 million by 2050.
Geographic Imbalance in Vehicle Growth
Northern and western states are expected to witness the steepest rise in vehicle ownership. Uttar Pradesh alone will host over 90 million vehicles. Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat are also slated for significant expansion, while population-stabilised southern states are likely to see a plateau in vehicle growth. At the district level, urban and peri-urban hubs—such as Delhi, Bengaluru, Pune, Thane, and Ahmedabad—will collectively account for 10% of India’s total vehicle stock by 2050.
EVs Lead in Cost Competitiveness, but Heavy Vehicles Lag
CEEW’s analysis finds that electric vehicles (EVs) are already cost-competitive in several segments, especially in states with proactive EV policies. Electric two-wheelers have the lowest TCO at INR 1.48/km compared to INR 2.46/km for petrol models. In the three-wheeler category, EVs cost INR 1.28/km versus INR 3.21/km for petrol-powered vehicles. For commercial taxis, EVs offer major operational cost savings.
However, medium and heavy goods vehicles continue to rely on fossil fuels, as EVs remain costlier in this segment. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to remain the most economical fuel option for buses and trucks until 2040. Transitioning these segments to green fuels like hydrogen will require focused R&D, cost reductions, and infrastructure buildout.
Diesel to Dominate Transport Fuel Demand Until 2040s
Without accelerated progress in electrification and LNG adoption, diesel is projected to remain the dominant transport fuel well into the 2040s. CEEW forecasts diesel demand to peak only by 2047 in a business-as-usual scenario. Petrol demand, by contrast, could peak earlier—around 2032. Notably, trucks and buses are projected to contribute nearly 70% of transport emissions in 2050 unless decarbonisation efforts scale up.
To address this, the study calls for urgent investments in high-capacity EV charging stations and LNG refuelling infrastructure along key freight corridors.
Policy Recommendations: From Affordability to Infrastructure
The report urges policymakers to:
- Improve access to district-level vehicle stock data via platforms like VAHAN
- Promote battery financing through EMIs or rentals using public banks and NBFCs
- Prepare for fuel tax revenue decline by considering distance-based taxation models
- Focus on fast-growing rural and peri-urban areas where vehicle ownership is rising
- Map parking availability to identify households likely to adopt EVs
- Support slow-charging infrastructure at workplaces and residential complexes
The report also recommends public trials across vehicle segments and fuel types to gather real-world performance and cost data, aiding evidence-based policymaking.
Expert Commentary
“India’s road transport system is entering a decisive phase,” said Hemant Mallya, Fellow at CEEW. “A district-level lens on vehicle growth and fuel demand provides invaluable insights for policymakers and auto manufacturers to accelerate the transition to cleaner fuels and sustainable mobility.”
Dr. Himani Jain, Senior Programme Lead at CEEW, added, “India’s transport sector is facing the triple challenge of energy security, congestion, and emissions. The findings make it clear—without timely intervention, India faces an unsustainable future in fuel demand and emissions.”
Looking Ahead: Integrated Urban Planning
CEEW emphasized the need for integrated transport and energy planning in India’s urban design, to simultaneously address infrastructure, mobility, and climate goals. The organisation’s TFFM tool aims to guide government agencies, OEMs, and fuel providers with actionable insights for a low-carbon transport future.
