India’s transition to electric mobility is gaining momentum, with significant developments in the intercity e-bus segment. The Market Assessment for Intercity Electric Buses in India report provides a comprehensive overview of the current state and prospects of this market.
The report highlights the critical role of rural and intercity buses in achieving several policy objectives, such as ensuring access to mobility for diverse users, providing livelihood opportunities, and reducing the energy and emission intensity of the bus sector. India’s bus market, currently at 2.3 million buses, is projected to grow to 3.16 million by 2030, necessitating the procurement of 2 million buses for fleet replacement and augmentation. Notably, only 10% of this fleet is operated by government agencies, with the remaining 90% managed by private operators in various sectors, including intercity transport, school buses, and tourist transport.
Achieving the Government of India’s EV 30@30 goal, which aims for a 30% share of electric buses in overall bus sales by 2030, will require the deployment of 315,000 e-buses. Out of this, about 252,000 are expected to be in the private bus market. This significant adoption is anticipated to enhance access to affordable and space-efficient mobility, covering an estimated 212 billion passenger kilometers of journeys. Moreover, the report suggests that e-buses, with a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) by INR 5 per kilometer compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) buses, could result in substantial cost savings for users, amounting to approximately INR 1.06 billion over the vehicle’s 12-year lifespan.
The environmental benefits of this transition are equally compelling. The adoption of 252,000 e-buses is projected to mitigate the emission of 252 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) and 4,000 tonnes of fine particulate matter (tPM2.5), thereby reducing air pollution along highways. However, achieving this scale of deployment will require significant capital investments, estimated at over INR 3 lakh crore (approximately USD 37.8 billion) by 2030.
The report also identifies key operational and financial characteristics of the intercity bus market, based on a national assessment and city-wise operator surveys. It highlights the feedback from various stakeholders, including bus operators, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and financial institutions. Operators have pointed out several barriers to e-bus adoption, such as high upfront costs, limited charging infrastructure, and concerns about vehicle range and performance. OEMs, on the other hand, emphasize the need for product improvement and cost reduction, while financial institutions stress the importance of de-risking mechanisms to facilitate investments in e-buses.
To overcome these challenges, the report provides several key recommendations for accelerating e-bus adoption in intercity operations. These include establishing an institutional mandate for e-bus adoption, enhancing product performance and reducing costs, providing policy and funding support from the government, and developing alternative business models and de-risking mechanisms.
In conclusion, while the path to large-scale e-bus adoption in India presents several challenges, the potential benefits in terms of cost savings, environmental impact, and enhanced mobility make it a worthy goal. With coordinated efforts from all stakeholders, India can achieve significant progress in its transition to electric mobility in the intercity bus sector.
