In a recent fact sheet released by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the potential for hydrogen in the transportation sector takes a skeptical turn. Contrary to optimistic projections, the document asserts that hydrogen faces a daunting challenge in gaining traction, especially with the rapid expansion of battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
The fact sheet underscores the temporal disadvantage of proposed hydrogen production projects, stating that by the time they come to fruition, the widespread adoption of BEVs will likely overshadow most applications of hydrogen, even in industries like trucking.
Highlighting a critical environmental concern, the IEEFA report questions the cleanliness of hydrogen as a fuel source, revealing that a substantial 95% of hydrogen produced in the U.S. originates from fossil fuels. Citing data from Argonne National Labs, the document notes that the hydrogen vehicle market remains exceedingly small, with only 2,978 hydrogen-fueled vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2023 compared to over 1.4 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, resulting in a staggering ratio of 471:1.
Addressing the common perception that a market for hydrogen already exists in the transport sector, the fact sheet counters, stating that today’s hydrogen is predominantly derived from fossil natural gas (methane) and is far from environmentally friendly. It emphasizes the dirty nature of methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas over a 20-year period, associated with the production and transport of natural gas from wells or landfills (Renewable Natural Gas). Furthermore, the document warns against overlooking the environmental impact of small, modular site-based hydrogen production facilities, which could release more than 19 tons of CO2 equivalent for every ton of hydrogen produced.
IEEFA’s research rings the alarm on the potential pitfalls of hydrogen produced from methane, cautioning that the enthusiasm surrounding such projects may inadvertently fund initiatives that exacerbate climate change and prolong society’s dependence on fossil fuels for decades to come.
