India’s vehicle ownership is set to more than double by 2050, growing from 226 million in 2023 to nearly 500 million, according to an unprecedented series of district-level studies released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Two-wheelers will continue to dominate the road, comprising nearly 70% of the vehicle stock—over 350 million vehicles—under a business-as-usual scenario that factors in GDP and population trends.
Private car ownership is projected to triple, reaching 90 million vehicles by mid-century. Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh alone is expected to house more than 90 million vehicles, with substantial growth also forecasted in Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat. In contrast, growth in the southern states is likely to plateau due to declining population growth.
Urban and peri-urban hubs—Delhi, Bengaluru, Thane, Pune, and Ahmedabad—will account for 10% of India’s total projected vehicle stock in 2050, the studies find.
EVs Cost-Competitive in Key Segments
CEEW’s findings show that electric vehicles (EVs) are already more affordable than petrol or diesel alternatives in several segments, particularly:
- Two-wheelers: INR 1.48/km (EV) vs. INR 2.46/km (petrol)
- Three-wheelers: INR 1.28/km (EV) vs. INR 3.21/km (petrol)
- Commercial taxis: EVs offer substantial daily savings
For private cars, the cost advantage of EVs varies across states depending on subsidies, electricity tariffs, and purchase prices. However, medium and heavy goods vehicles still lean on diesel, CNG, or LNG, as EVs remain costlier in this category in 2024.
Diesel Dominance Unless Course Corrected
Without accelerated electrification and infrastructure investment, diesel will remain dominant in India’s road transport well into the 2040s. According to CEEW’s Transportation Fuel Forecasting Model (TFFM):
- Diesel demand will peak only by 2047
- Petrol demand may peak earlier—by 2032
- By 2050, 70% of transport emissions may originate from buses and trucks
Experts urge targeted R&D and policy incentives to scale LNG adoption for commercial transport and advance the use of green hydrogen and battery technologies.
Strategic Roadmap for Sustainable Mobility
To guide a sustainable transport transformation, CEEW recommends:
- Strengthening district-level vehicle stock data, especially via the VAHAN portal
- Improving EV affordability through battery leasing, EMIs, and NBFC schemes
- Encouraging slow-charging infrastructure in public, workplace, and residential areas
- Investing in EV and LNG refuelling stations along high-traffic corridors
- Introducing distance-based taxation to compensate for declining fuel tax revenues
- Conducting real-world public trials to compare vehicle types across cost and emissions
- Integrating transport and energy planning into urban development
Expert Commentary
India’s road transport system is entering a decisive phase. A district-level lens, paired with cost and fuel demand analysis, provides the insights needed to move towards sustainable mobility,” said Hemant Mallya, Fellow at CEEW.
Our modelling shows the risk of unsustainable growth in vehicle stock, fuel use, and emissions. We need efficient, walkable, and low-carbon urban transport systems,” added Dr Himani Jain, Senior Programme Lead at CEEW.
