New data from S&P Global points to a deteriorating outlook for the EU battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market, driven by shifting economic conditions. Between the first and second halves of 2024, market expectations have shifted dramatically, prompting a reevaluation of EU trends.
Forecasts for BEV market share in 2025 have been revised downward from 27% to 21%, according to S&P Global. This significant drop signals a potential setback for meeting the EU’s 2025 CO2 emission targets, with reduced BEV adoption raising concerns across EU member states.
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has repeatedly called on policymakers to address the steep compliance costs tied to these targets. Key challenges include insufficient charging infrastructure and limited EV market incentives—factors largely outside manufacturers’ control.
ACEA emphasizes the urgent need for a comprehensive review of the EU’s approach, highlighting that the current trajectory deviates sharply from earlier projections. In response to ongoing economic and geopolitical pressures, the association is advocating for immediate cost relief for 2025 and a faster review of CO2 standards for light- and heavy-duty vehicles to protect the competitiveness of the EU automotive industry. Martin Kupka, Czech Transport Minister, said, “Without a targeted automotive industrial action plan, we risk falling behind the US and China. The reality check shows that the EU needs to have a more flexible system in place for auto manufacturers to reach the ambitious CO2 reduction targets. We should ensure the industry uses profits to invest into new solutions instead of paying penalties.”
Sigrid de Vries, ACEA Director General, said, “The looming crisis necessitates urgent action. All indicators point to a stagnating EU electric vehicle market, at a time when acceleration is needed. Apart from the disproportionate compliance costs for EU manufacturers in 2025, the success of the entire road transport decarbonisation policy is at risk. We appreciate that several European Commissioners have emphasised regulatory predictability and stability in their confirmation hearings, but stability can’t be a goal in itself. Manufacturers have invested heavily and will continue doing so. Europe must stay on course of the green transformation by adopting a strategy that works.”
