The global electric car market is experiencing strong growth, with sales expected to hit 17 million vehicles by the end of 2024. This surge is driven by rising demand and supportive policies, even though some markets face short-term challenges. According to the latest edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global EV Outlook, nearly one in three cars on the roads in China will be electric by 2030, with the United States and European Union also seeing significant increases in electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
The report highlights that over 20% of cars sold worldwide this year are anticipated to be electric. The demand for EVs is projected to continue growing over the next decade, transforming the global automotive industry and significantly reducing oil consumption for road transport. The first quarter of 2024 saw a 25% increase in global electric car sales compared to the same period in 2023, reflecting a similar growth rate to the previous year but from a larger base. The number of electric cars sold in the first three months of 2024 is roughly equivalent to the total number sold in all of 2020.
In China, electric car sales are expected to reach around 10 million in 2024, representing about 45% of all car sales in the country. In the United States, electric cars are projected to make up roughly one in nine car sales. Despite a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales in Europe and the phase-out of subsidies in some countries, electric cars are still expected to account for about one in four cars sold.
This growth builds on a record-breaking 2023 when global electric car sales soared by 35% to nearly 14 million vehicles. Although demand was largely concentrated in China, Europe, and the United States, some emerging markets like Vietnam and Thailand also saw significant growth, with electric cars representing 15% and 10% of all car sales, respectively.
Looking ahead, the IEA report anticipates that global electric car sales will continue to grow robustly. By 2035, under current policy settings, every other car sold worldwide is expected to be electric. If countries fully meet their energy and climate pledges, two in three cars sold could be electric by that year. This rapid increase in electric vehicle adoption, including cars, vans, trucks, buses, and two- and three-wheelers, could help avoid the need for around 12 million barrels of oil per day, which matches the current road transport demand in China and Europe combined.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol commented on the findings, noting the clear momentum behind electric cars. He emphasized that the global EV revolution is entering a new growth phase, supported by significant investments in battery manufacturing. As a result, the share of electric vehicles on the roads is expected to rise rapidly. Birol highlighted that, based on current policy settings, China will have nearly one in three cars on the road as electric by 2030, with the United States and European Union seeing similar but slightly lower figures. This shift will have major implications for both the automotive and energy sectors.
Manufacturers have made substantial progress in meeting the increasing ambitions for electric vehicles set by governments, including significant financial commitments. Thanks to high levels of investment over the past five years, global battery production capacity is expected to keep pace with rising demand. However, the transition to electric vehicles may not be consistent and will depend on factors like affordability.
In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper than their conventional counterparts. In contrast, in Europe and the United States, internal combustion engine cars generally remained less expensive, though competition and advancements in battery technology are anticipated to reduce EV prices in the coming years. Even where upfront costs are high, the lower operating expenses of EVs make the initial investment worthwhile over time.
Chinese automakers have also boosted electric car exports, accounting for over half of global electric car sales in 2023. These companies are expanding production facilities abroad and seeing strong sales of more affordable models in international markets. This trend indicates a significant shift in the main EV-producing economies away from traditional automotive industry leaders.
The report stresses the importance of expanding public charging infrastructure to support the growth of electric vehicles. The number of public charging points globally increased by 40% in 2023 compared to 2022, with fast chargers growing faster than slower ones. However, to match the level of EV deployment outlined in government pledges, charging networks need to grow sixfold by 2035. Policy support and careful planning are crucial to ensure that the increased demand for electricity from charging does not strain electricity grids. Accompanying the Global EV Outlook 2024 are interactive tools, including the Global EV Data Explorer and the Global EV Policy Explorer, which allow users to explore EV statistics, projections, and policy measures worldwide.
