According to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast by Powertrain, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are set to reach a significant milestone in 2024, with sales expected to hit 10 million units. This achievement will mark a pivotal moment in the global passenger vehicle market, coinciding with a long-term decline in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The market share of ICE vehicles is projected to fall below 50% within the next four years.
Despite a temporary slowdown in 2024, BEV sales are anticipated to maintain their upward trajectory as traditional automakers address profitability challenges. This growth will be driven by the overhaul of production processes and strategic alliances with battery manufacturers, aimed at reducing manufacturing costs, producing more affordable EVs, and strengthening supply chains.
Research Analyst Abhik Mukherjee commented on the shift to EVs, stating, “By revamping supply chains and preparing to produce affordable EVs priced below $35,000, automakers like Ford, GM, Stellantis, and Volkswagen are positioning themselves to compete with market leaders. This strategic overhaul aims not only to meet stricter emission regulations but also to capitalize on evolving subsidies and growing consumer demand, revitalizing the global BEV market starting from the end of 2025.”
China remains a dominant force in the BEV market, with its sales projected to be four times that of North America in 2024. China is expected to maintain more than 50% of global BEV sales until 2027 and will likely register more BEV sales than North America and Europe combined by 2030. From 2025, Europe and the US are expected to emerge as major growth drivers.
BYD’s market share in the BEV sector is set to surge in 2024, potentially surpassing Tesla in sales. This shift highlights the dynamic nature of the global EV market.
Associate Director Liz Lee commented on the EU’s new tariff rates, saying, “The EU’s new tariff rates for Chinese EVs aim to level the playing field for European manufacturers struggling to compete with lower-priced Chinese imports. These tariffs might push Chinese automakers towards emerging markets like the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. The outcome of EU-China talks, especially with Germany’s opposition, will shape future EV market dynamics, with Europe and the US driving growth from 2025 onwards.”
As traditional automakers navigate the transition to EVs, hybrid vehicles, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), will continue to dominate the electrified segment in the near term. To meet stringent fleet emission standards, automakers are promoting PHEVs and HEVs until cost-effective BEV manufacturing processes are achieved and supply chain control is solidified. This strategy aligns with broader industry efforts to streamline the transition to electric mobility, requiring significant investments in charging infrastructure and grid restructuring.
