The outlook for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure suggests that public charging will increase sixfold by 2035, significantly aiding mass-market consumers in switching to electric vehicles. This large-scale adoption of EVs relies heavily on the development of accessible and affordable charging stations. Early adopters, typically living in single-family homes, have had the convenience of home charging. Consequently, most EV charging has been private. Public chargers, often installed in urban areas with higher utilization rates, must now expand beyond cities and suburbs to facilitate broader adoption.
A 2021 survey of UK EV drivers found over 90% had access to home chargers, whereas only 55% of Indian consumers had similar access in 2023. To increase adoption, it’s essential to build charging infrastructure in workplaces and public areas for those without home charging. Charging speed is also crucial, particularly for long journeys. Additionally, charging services should be user-friendly, reliable, and transparently priced. Ensuring interoperability is important for maximizing the benefits of investments in charging infrastructure.
By 2030, the number of global public charging points is projected to exceed 15 million, a fourfold increase from 2023. By 2035, this number could reach nearly 25 million. China, where home charging is limited, leads in public charging infrastructure and accounted for 70% of global public light-duty vehicle (LDV) charging in 2023. The number of electric LDVs per public charging point in China is expected to increase from around 10 in 2023 to about 15 by 2035.
Europe is also set to expand its public LDV chargers to around 2.7 million by 2035, primarily within the European Union. Policies like the EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) play a significant role in this growth, setting specific requirements for public charging stations. The UK plans to install at least 300,000 public chargers by 2030. In the United States, government subsidies aim to support a national network of 500,000 public EV charging ports by 2030, with projections indicating 1.7 million public chargers by 2035.
Japan aims to deploy 150,000 charging points by 2030, including 30,000 fast chargers, while India’s FAME II program supports the development of charging infrastructure with specific targets for major highways. By 2035, India is projected to have almost 2 million charging points to support around 25 million electric LDVs.
Globally, most EV charging will continue to occur at home. However, the share of electricity from public and other private charging stations is expected to grow, reaching almost 45% by 2035. The number of home chargers is projected to increase tenfold by 2035, with a significant rise in other private chargers as well.
For commercial vehicles, charging capacity is set to grow twenty-fold by 2035, particularly for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) like buses and trucks. Overnight depot charging will be essential, but opportunity charging at locations like loading docks and public chargers along highways will also play a role. Fast charging and smart charging strategies will help manage the impact on power grids, supporting renewable energy integration and reducing system flexibility needs.
Smart charging, along with strategic and integrated power grid planning, will be crucial in balancing the benefits of fast charging with local grid impacts. Measures such as stationary batteries, on-site renewable power plants, and battery swapping can reduce grid stress and provide additional services. Collaborative planning among stakeholders and data-sharing will be essential to optimize system development and reduce costs, ensuring a smooth rollout of HDV and general charging infrastructure.
