The Global EV Outlook report (IEA) projects the future of electric mobility, extending its analysis to 2035. It uses a scenario-based approach to assess possible futures for global electric vehicle (EV) markets, focusing on recent market trends, policy drivers, and technology developments. The scenarios aim to provide insights for decision-making by governments, companies, and stakeholders regarding the future of EVs. The report includes three scenarios: the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario).
The STEPS reflects existing policies and legislated government objectives. It considers current EV-related policies, regulations, and investments, illustrating the potential outcomes of policymakers’ plans. The APS assumes that all announced government ambitions and targets are fully met on time, including major electrification targets and net zero emissions pledges. The APS highlights the gap between current policy measures and the additional actions needed to achieve these ambitions. The NZE Scenario outlines a pathway to global net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, compatible with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. It illustrates the ambition gap between current policies and the targets required under the Paris Agreement.
The global electric vehicle fleet is projected to grow significantly under all scenarios. In the STEPS, the number of EVs (excluding two/three-wheelers) is expected to increase from less than 45 million in 2023 to 250 million by 2030 and 525 million by 2035. This means that more than one in four vehicles on the road could be electric by 2035. In the APS, the EV stock could reach 585 million by 2035, representing 30% of the vehicle fleet. The NZE Scenario projects even faster growth, with the EV fleet reaching 790 million by 2035.
Electric vehicle sales are also expected to rise sharply. In the STEPS, EV sales (excluding two/three-wheelers) could grow from around 14 million in 2023 to almost 45 million by 2030 and close to 65 million by 2035. The APS projects higher sales shares, with nearly 45% of vehicle sales being electric by 2030 and two-thirds by 2035. The NZE Scenario forecasts EV sales shares reaching 65% by 2030 and 95% by 2035.
Different regions show varying levels of commitment and progress towards electric mobility. China, Europe, and the United States are leading in both targets and policies to achieve those targets. For example, in China, the sales share of electric cars could reach over 60% by 2030 in the STEPS, aligning closely with the NZE Scenario. In the United States, new emissions standards and incentives are expected to boost electric car and truck sales. The STEPS projects electric light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales to reach 55% by 2030 and over 70% by 2035. Japan’s policies remain supportive of EVs, with electric LDV sales expected to reach 30% by 2035 in the STEPS and 70% in the APS.
India’s outlook for electric car sales is improving as domestic supply chains develop. The APS projects that over 60% of LDV sales in India could be electric by 2035. In emerging and developing economies, the focus is on electrifying two/three-wheelers and public transport. The STEPS projects EV sales shares of 45% for two/three-wheelers, 20% for buses, and 18% for LDVs by 2035. The APS projects higher shares, with 65% for two/three-wheelers, 30% for buses, and 40% for LDVs.
The report highlights that the ten largest global automakers, which together sold over 40 million cars in 2023, have set ambitious electrification targets. If these targets are met, over 20 million new electric cars could be sold by 2030. Major carmakers in China, Europe, and the United States have increased their electrification ambitions. For example, Volkswagen has increased its BEV delivery target from 70% to 80% by 2030. In the United States, both Ford and GM have missed near-term targets but maintain long-term ambitions.
Investment in manufacturing capacity is crucial for achieving these targets. Major markets like the United States and the European Union have introduced new industrial policies supporting the expansion of EV and battery manufacturing. Reported investment announcements from 2022 and 2023 alone exceed USD 275 billion for EVs and USD 195 billion for batteries. This investment boosts confidence in the rapid electrification of road transport, with committed battery manufacturing capacity sufficient to support electric car sales shares exceeding 55% by 2030.
Overall, the outlook for electric mobility is promising, with significant growth in EV stock and sales projected under all scenarios. However, achieving these targets requires continued policy support, investment, and international cooperation.
