The Global EV Outlook 2024 provides an insightful analysis of the progress and future trends in electric mobility. It outlines the significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the policies driving this change, and the challenges and opportunities ahead. The International Energy Agency (IEA) supports the study, examining energy issues such as oil, gas, coal, renewables, and electricity markets. The report is an essential tool for policymakers, stakeholders, and industry leaders to understand the dynamics of the EV market and strategize accordingly.
In recent years, the adoption of electric vehicles has accelerated globally. In 2023, global sales of electric cars neared 14 million, a significant increase from previous years. This surge indicates a robust growth trajectory as EVs transition from early adoption to the mass market. China leads the market, contributing to nearly 60% of global electric car sales, followed by Europe and the United States. This concentration of sales in a few regions highlights the need for broader adoption across emerging and developing economies to ensure global success.
The report projects that electric car sales could reach around 17 million in 2024, accounting for more than one in five cars sold worldwide. This growth is underpinned by competition among manufacturers, falling battery and car prices, and ongoing policy support. Notably, the market share of electric cars is expected to reach up to 45% in China, 25% in Europe, and over 11% in the United States by 2024.
Electric vehicle affordability remains a critical factor in accelerating adoption. In China, over 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were cheaper than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. However, in Europe and the United States, electric cars are still 10% to 50% more expensive. Achieving price parity is crucial for a rapid transition to EVs, which current trends suggest could be reached by 2030 in major markets outside China.
Policy support plays a pivotal role in driving EV adoption and industry investment. For instance, the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and similar policies in the European Union and China have set ambitious targets and incentives for EV production and adoption. These policies aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance energy security, and foster economic growth by creating jobs and boosting local manufacturing capabilities.
Battery technology and manufacturing are also critical components of the EV ecosystem. In 2023, global EV battery manufacturing capacity far exceeded demand, indicating readiness to meet future growth. Technological advancements, such as the development of lithium-iron-phosphate and sodium-ion batteries, are expected to drive down costs further and enhance the performance and sustainability of EVs.
The Global EV Outlook 2024 emphasizes the importance of public charging infrastructure in supporting the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. The number of installed public charging points increased by 40% in 2023, with significant growth in fast chargers. To sustain the momentum, the deployment of charging infrastructure needs to keep pace with the rising number of EVs, ensuring accessibility and convenience for users.
The report also highlights the potential of electric two- and three-wheelers in emerging markets. In regions like India and Southeast Asia, these vehicles offer an affordable and accessible entry point into electric mobility, helping to reduce emissions and improve air quality. In 2023, electric two-wheeler sales in India and Southeast Asia accounted for 5% and 3% of total sales, respectively, indicating a growing market for these vehicles.
The second-hand market for electric vehicles is another area of growth. As the primary market for EVs matures, a robust second-hand market will provide more affordable options for consumers, further driving adoption. In 2023, the market size for used electric cars was around 800,000 in China, 400,000 in the United States, and over 450,000 across key European markets.
Battery recycling is becoming increasingly important for the sustainability and security of the EV supply chain. The battery recycling industry is preparing for a significant increase in end-of-life batteries from the 2030s onwards. In 2023, global battery recycling capacity reached 300 gigawatt-hours, with projections suggesting it could exceed 1,500 gigawatt-hours by 2030 if all announced projects materialize.
In conclusion, the Global EV Outlook 2024 presents a comprehensive overview of the current state and prospects of electric mobility. It underscores the importance of policy support, technological innovation, and infrastructure development in driving the transition to a sustainable and affordable electric vehicle future. The report provides valuable insights for policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders to navigate the evolving landscape of electric mobility and achieve their electrification goals.
