EEI and IEI estimated the EV charging infrastructure needed to support the more than 18 million EVs projected to be on the road in 2030 using the Department of Energy’s Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection (EVI-Pro) Lite tool.
The EVI-Pro Lite tool is a simplified, publicly accessible version of a model developed by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) to estimate the demand for EV charging infrastructure. The tool estimates the number of charging ports needed within a city or state to support a given EV population, based on vehicle travel patterns as well as EV and charging station characteristics. The tool allows users to adjust key assumptions, such as the mix of BEVs versus PHEVs and the amount of charging done at home. Based on the EEI/IEI forecast, we estimate that about 9.6 million charge ports will be needed to support the 18.7 million EVs projected to be on the road in 2030. The mix of charge ports by location is shown in Figure
Our assumptions include:
- EV Population: The EVI-Pro Lite tool does not provide a national calculation option, so the results shown are the sum of the outputs for individual analyses of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The 18.7 million EVs were allocated by applying a uniform sales growth rate to each state. Since the tool limits the EV population to no more than 10 percent of all registered vehicles, states that exceeded this market share were capped at 10 percent and the excess vehicles were allocated to the remaining states based on their EV market share. This effectively shifts the EV distribution among the states closer to that of the conventional vehicle population, which is reasonable as EVs become more mainstream.
- Vehicle Mix: The EVI-Pro Lite tool simplifies EV models to four types – PHEVs with electric ranges of 20 and 50 miles and BEVs with electric ranges of 100 and 250 miles. This analysis assumed a split of: 15 percent 20-mile PHEVs; 25 percent 50-mile PHEVs; 15 percent 100-mile BEVs; and 45 percent 250-mile BEVs. While the current EV population is roughly 50-50 split between PHEVs and BEVs, this projected split reflects a 60-40 bias toward BEVs that is estimated based on automaker product announcements. This effectively increases the number of DCFC ports needed, while reducing the number of Level 2 ports.
- Support for PHEVs: The EVI-Pro Lite tool allows users to select “partial” or “full” support for PHEV drivers. The full support option adds Level 2 chargers at workplace and public locations, such that most PHEV trips can be completed on the electric range only, while the partial support option assumes more PHEV trips will be completed using the gasoline range once the electric range is depleted. This analysis chose the full support option, with the assumption that PHEV drivers will seek to maximize their electric miles and minimize their gasoline miles and that providing the necessary charging infrastructure to do so will be needed to drive adoption to the forecasted level. This assumption effectively increases the number of Level 2 ports.
- Home Charging: The EVI-Pro Lite tool default assumption is that all EV drivers have access to overnight charging at home and begin each day with a full charge. While this assumption may closely approximate the EV population today, this analysis assumes thatthe forecasted EV buyers will resemble conventional vehicle households more closely. Studies suggest only about 80 percent of households have access to off-street parking, and even fewer have access to a dedicated off-street parking space. This analysis assumed 80 percent of the forecasted EV population would have access to home charging, which effectively increases the charging ports needed in other locations. Additionally, this analysis assigned a home Level 2 charging station to half of these EVs with home charging (40 percent of the forecasted EV population), with the assumption that Level 1 charging at home will be available and sufficient for the remaining EVs.
Approaches to Deploying EV Charging Infrastructure
The EV market is driven by a myriad of dynamics, including customer awareness and acceptance, the types of EVs available and their affordability, and the availability of charginginfrastructure. It is well established that the lack of EV charging infrastructure is a primarybarrier to EV adoption. The analysis using the EVI-Pro Lite tool in this report estimates the charging infrastructure needed to support a certain level of EVs. In this section, we discuss approaches for deploying EV charging infrastructure.Today, approximately 45,000 public Level 2 charging ports and 9,000 DCFC ports are available, including those dedicated to Tesla vehicles. The precise number of workplace Level 2 charging stations is unknown. Based on the EVI-Pro Lite tool results, as shown in Figure 5, more than 2 million charge ports in workplaces and public locations will be needed by 2030. The significant difference between the current availability of charging infrastructure and the expected charging infrastructure needed suggests a growing “infrastructure gap” that must be addressed.One of the impediments to widespread charging infrastructure availability is the cost. The costs associated with EV charging infrastructure include the equipment itself, ongoing operation and maintenance costs, and the installation costs needed to get power to the charging station site. These costs can vary widely, from a few hundred dollars to install a Level 2 charger at home to tens of thousands of dollars to install a DCFC.14 Much of the EV charging infrastructure to date has been paid for by the customer or entity that hosts the charging equipment (the “site host”), whether that is a homeowner, a commercial property owner, or a public entity.
Credits: Innovation Norway; India EV Story: Emerging Opportunities