The approach to the likely future market for EV Chargers is set out below:
For the context of this exercise, only the Public Charging Infrastructure required for passenger cars is being considered as the market potential for the Client (2/3W are likely to shift to Battery swapping in a large way and will rely on home chargers; Buses are also likely to move to the Battery Swapping model in India).
- Currently, there is low visibility on how things are likely to pan out in EVs and EV Chargers segment in India, so there is a need to make certain assumptions - we have spoken to the Industry stakeholders and validated some of these assumptions.
- These assumptions could be relooked in the future and the future estimation of the market could be adjusted accordingly as per new inputs in future.
1. The base estimation of likely passenger car additions by 2026 considered:
i) We expect anywhere from 130,000 to 4,300,000 nos of Electric Cars to be added by 2026 based on the 2 scenarios set out by NITI Ayog in Indiai) We expect anywhere from 130,000 to 4,300,000 nos of Electric Cars to be added by 2026 based on the 2 scenarios set out by NITI Ayog in India
ii) ASSUMPTION: Feedback has reckoned a conservative number of 2,000,000 Electric cars by 2026 in India, assuming the NITI Ayog’s plan to be very ambitious; the market likely to grow given the spate of new entrants and the push by the Government and the likely fall in prices going forward.
2. Next, the norms of No. of EV Charging stations required for the EVs on road considered, as per industry estimate, this could be in the range for 1 EV Charging station per 4-6 vehicles, so a norm of 5 vehicles considered
3. Dividing the no of EVs likely with this norm, gives us no of charging stations required
i) To reach a milestone of meeting the charging requirement of 2,000,000 Electric Cars,around 400,000 nos of Charging stations are required by 2026
ii) This estimation is also validated from our interviews with NTPC, when asked them about why 100,000 nos of EV charging stations are being planned by them – they had mentioned that they would like to kick start the EV revolution in India by installing the initial 20-30% of EV Chargers required for India – then the private sector could chip in and take this industry ahead.
4. Next, we used the norm of no of EV Chargers used per EV Charging Stationi) We expect the average no of EV Chargers per station from an average of 4 / station togo up to 6 / station by 2026
5. Next the norms of the type of Chargers (AC/DC and Slow / Fast ) was considered
i) This is an area which will depend on the pace of technology developments and the prices of EV Chargers going forward
ii) We have considered the industry view that the AC Chargers (Slow) will dominate for some years now and DC Fast Charging could be the future
iii) Accordingly, we have used the norm of DC Chargers to be about 60% of the business by 2026
Credits: Innovation Norway; India EV Story: Emerging Opportunities